This event, a virtual meeting on the economic impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America, probably taught me more than any other event I’ve attended this year. I won’t be able to fit everything into this post, so I’ll link the conversation here for interested readers.
The conversation was sobering. Two featured experts expected the global crisis to be worse than that of the 2008-2009 Great Recession, with the global economy falling by 1-3.5%.
The impact on Latin America is projected to be around the same: at least a 1.8% contraction overall, with a 10% fall in exports, an 8-25% fall in the tourism industry, and similarly high impact to the manufacturing sector. Currencies have already been devalued across the region. As of right now, remittances, which are a crucial part of many Latin American economies, have not been affected, however if this crisis is prolonged, they too will dwindle quickly. The number of people below the poverty line in Latin America is expected to about triple by the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Women are expected to face disproportionate effects because of their roles as caretakers. As schools and daycares close, women must stay home with the children, losing work and money. Because there are too few hospital beds, women will be expected to care for unwell family members, putting them at greater risk of infection.
In the wake of “Un Día Sin Mujeres,” and other protests for gender equality in Latin America, I hope that this does not undo the work that has been done! Hopefully governments across the region take the suggestions of these economists to heart and pay the women who are at-home caretakers for their work, as well as reserving priority care (and hospital beds) for female caretakers, especially those who are pregnant.
In positive news, Latin American governments started taking action relatively early. 12 have closed themselves off to foreign visitors. 8 have sealed their borders. 12 more have implemented new border controls. Chile is seeking diplomatic action to work on a multilateral regional solution. Colombia is providing free water and energy services for the duration of the crisis. Credit lines have been opened, social spending increased, and payroll extensions approved.
While the projections for Latin America are bleak due to a lack of resources and severe economic dependence, the governments of Latin America are taking earlier and more effective action than most of their “first-world” neighbors. It would do for the “first world” to get off its high horse and take inspiration from some of the more socially-conscious governments in the “forgotten continent” to the South.
Ayer, escuché a una conversación virtual sobre los efectos económicos del COVID-19 en latinoamérica que me enseñó más que cada evento que asistí este año. No puedo escribir sobre todo que aprendí, así que tengo el enlace aquí para que pueda escuchar a la conversación si quiere.
El tono de la conversación fue bastante grave. Los dos expertos quienes hablaron dijeron que la economía global va a caer entre 1 y 3,5 por ciento –– más que cayó en 2008.
En latinoamérica, al mejor, la economía sólo caerá 1,8 por ciento en total. Los expertos esperan una caída de 10 por ciento en la industria del exportación, una de 8 a 25 por ciento en la del turismo, y un impacto grave en la de la fabricación también. El valor de cada moneda en la región ya se bajó. Por ahora, los remitos, que forman un parte crucial de las economías latinoamericanas, no han sido afectados, pero si el COVID-19 sigue así por mucho tiempo, van a parar. Esperen, desafortunadamente, que el número de la gente bajo la línea de pobreza va a triplicar debido a la pandemia.
Las mujeres experimentarán los efectos peores ahora que las escuelas se han cancelado. Deben quedarse en casa con los niños, y muchas perderán sus puestos, o al mínimo sus salarios. Debido a la falta de espacio en los hospitales, muchos tendrán que cuidar a los familiares enfermos –– poniéndose a alto riesgo de la enfermedad.
Espero que las mujeres de latinoamérica no pierden los avances que han ganado en “Un día sin mujeres” y otras protestas para la igualdad. Espero que los gobiernos de la región tomen las sugerencias de los expertos en nuestra conversación, y paguen las mujeres que se quedan en casa para cuidar la familia. Deben también reservar unas camas en cada hospital para las mujeres embarazadas y las mujeres que trabajan como cuidadoras.
Hay noticias positivas. En general, los gobiernos latinoamericanos han tomado acciones tempranos para luchar contra la pandemia. 12 ya pararon el turismo, 8 cerraron sus fronteras completamente, y 12 más las cerraron parcialmente para combatir la propagación del virus. Chile aboga para la acción multilateral entre los gobiernos de la región para intentar resolver la crisis. Colombia proviene servicios de energía y agua por gratis. Se han abierto nuevas líneas de crédito, aumentado los presupuestos sociales, y aprobado extensiones de salario por trabajadores desplazados.
Mientras que hay miedo (con razón) sobre el impacto económico de la crisis de COVID-19 en latinoamérica, debido a la falta de recursos y la dependencia económica en los EEUU y China, los gobiernos de la región han tomado acciones más tempranas y más decisivas que sus vecinos del “primer mundo”. Los gobiernos del “primer mundo” deben estar inspirados por sus compadres más listos en el “continente olvidado” al sur.
I attended the same event and also found the disproportionate economic effect of COVID-19 on women in Latin America particularly concerning. What do you think are ways Latin American governments can be incentivized or held accountable for prioritizing policies assisting populations that will be the worse affected by the pandemic? Is encouraging these policies a responsibility of the international community? Of civil society?
I’m not certain to be completely honest––even less so after we talked about it in class. I’m glad you wrote this comment because it allowed me to revisit this post and see how the story has developed from the time I wrote it. Certainly Latin American governments, though initially responsive, have had issues keeping the virus in check, largely because of the number of essential workers and the lack of medical resources. I do think that the international community has to be very careful about interfering in Latin America though.
I also listened to this talk and it worried me on the affect of COVID-19 on Latin America. You are correct in saying that poor people and woman will feel the impact but it is still unknown just how severe it will. Latin America’s impact, from what I learned, will be dependent on the the rest of the worlds impact, especially China and the US. A huge drop in economy may spiral into disaster. Let’s just hope this pandemic ends soon.
I did not attend this particular event, but I wrote my term paper on the subject of COVID-19 in Latin America, especially in Mexico and El Salvador. The governments in Latin America are reacting with varying degrees of success, but overall, the Latin American region has completely shut down. This is very worrying because Latin America lacks the infrastructure needed to sustain a long country or even region-wide quarantine. The hospital systems aren’t well equipped, and the situation will only amplify unrest in the area. Furthermore, Latin America is an export-driven economy with its biggest investor being China so it will be interesting to see the economic impact of COVID-19. The predictions are grim and I think that Latin America is going to be one the areas hit hardest by this pandemic.
Yes, thanks for pointing this out. It’s definitely true that the story has developed a lot since I first wrote this post, and my opinions have changed a bit. I still think that some of the governments’ programs have been excellent (albeit not as effective due to lack of control/resources) whereas others have been quite inadequate. Latin America’s dependence on other regions is going to hurt it a lot, so I definitely agree with you that it’ll be hard hit!
There has been a lot of talk about the big-picture effects of COVID, but this is the first time I’ve heard a more personal report of how the virus will affect individuals throughout Latin America. I was unaware of the imbalance in how hard this period will be for mothers and other women in the region, especially with the responsibilities of constant childcare and caring for any sick. Ideally the modes of support for these women that you mention are implemented and they do not lose ground in their fight for gender equality.
Rachael – First off, super impressive Spanish here, I loved that you translated it. I wish my Spanish was still good enough to read that. Also, I really think you hit on a lot of key points in your post; the coronavirus will have a disproportionate impact on women and many governments are failing to institute proper or effective restrictions. One thing that I think would be interesting to see is if gender roles shift during this time of crisis. With many household struggling, I can see women playing a larger role in earning income for the family and potentially for men to spend more time with children at home (if they are laid off).